Unity Herald/Glas Sabora, 1996.

THE WORLD AFFAIRS COUNCIL OF ORANGE COUNTY

AUGUST 22, 1996

BOSNIA: IS THE DAYTON SETTLEMENT WORKING?

Vojin Joksimovich

To begin with, I do not view the Dayton/Paris Accords as a settlement. It fails to address, let alone resolve, any of the vital issues which led to dismemberment of former Yugoslavia, secession of Bosnia and the ensuing civil/religious war. It is nothing more than an extended cease-fire designed to enable Clinton to get re-elected.

As a Serbian-American, I am deeply concerned and even frightened regarding the Islamic reactions to the Dayton/Paris Accords. They characterized the Dayton/Paris Accords as "Erasing Islam from Bosnia". Furthermore, they seem to consider the Bosnian jihad as the first step in the reversal of the historic defeat of Ottoman armies at the gates of Vienna in 1683. In this context, the Islamists are defined as Muslims who use/abuse Islam as a cover for their radical political agenda.

The Bosnian Muslim President Izetbegovic stated recently: "Our struggle will not be over until the whole of Bosnia is free. Our children will liberate the whole of Bosnia." Izetbegovic's government is currently intimidating and beating members of the opposition parties as you might have read in the Saturday's edition of the Register. Former Prime Minister, Silajdzic, who has organized an opposition party was clobbered over the head with a metal rod. An assassination attempt was made on Fikret Abdic, a secular Muslim leader who believes in co- existence with both, the Serbs and Croats. On the other hand our media has been portraying Izetbegovic as a champion of democracy and multi-ethnic Bosnia.

Of course, the Bosnian Serbs and Croats know better than that. Neither the Orthodox Serbs nor the Roman Catholic Croats want to live under the Islamic rule. They want to be left alone to determine their own future.

The Clinton Administration seems to be oblivious to the complex realities of the mid-1990s. They are harming the long-term US interests without any tangible strategic gain. They have already alienated our traditional allies such as Great Britain and France, not to mention Greece and Serbia. At the same time, the Clinton Administration continues to embolden some of the US' worst enemies such as Iran. The Clinton Balkan policy is centered on demonization of Serbs which does not require the Administration to face and explain the facts.

Despite all of this, the Islamist world continues to maintain that whatever the US is doing is simply not good enough. This is not surprising. It is impossible to placate the Islamist world which is inherently anti-US and calls for establishment of a Muslim political order which is irreconcilable with the Western world values including the principles of the Dayton/Paris Accords.

Aggressive implementation of the Dayton/Paris Accords, including deployment of 60,000 NATO dominated IFOR, has aggravated already a polarized situation. Currently, two distinct conflicts are looming. In both, the key point of friction is the collapse of fictitious Muslim-Croat Federation invented and imposed by Washington in 1994. These two conflicts are:

1. Islamization and radicalization of Bosnia including consolidation of an islamist terrorist infrastructure specifically aimed at IFOR. The Izetbegovic's administration relies heavily on continued presence of mujahedeens; islamic warriors from Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, etc., as well as tens of thousands of Bosnian Muslims turned into Islamists. Those of you knowledgeable about WWII might remember the Bosnian Muslim Handzar Division who fought on the side of Nazi's. It has been revived now with all of its fascist culture. However, the revived Handzar division members do not even speak Serbian. The bulk consists of Albanians led by veteran Pakistani and Afghan experts. The implication being, of course, that from Bosnia they will move into Kosovo.

The Izetbegovic's doctrine has been to instigate crises in order to have US/NATO forces destroy the Serbs for them. This time the Croats are at risk, too. Islamists are convinced that the Clinton Administration can be manipulated successfully. Conflagration points are likely to be Brcko and Mostar or Central Bosnia. I will show a map of former Yugoslavia west of the Drina River showing the ethnic make-up in 1940 (vu-graph). Yellow are the Serbs, Green the Croats and brown Bosnian Muslims. On the top of this map, I would like to show the overlay map of the Bosnian Serb Republic in accordance with the Dayton/Paris Accords. I will let you conclude who was ethnically cleansed. The remaining issue is 49% of Bosnia uncleansed yet. Will the Serbs be cleansed from this territory as well? The most vulnerable point is the Brcko corridor. If the Islamists are successful, with or without the help from US/NATO, the Bosnian Serb Republic will be cut in half.

2. Another conflagration point between Croatia and rump Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) could be in Eastern Slavonia. It will not take long to spill into Bosnia. If the US tries to intervene directly to save the Sarajevo Administration, the conflict would likely escalate into an European war and possibly the WWIII.

The Croatian President Tudjman believes that there is no escape from a major war while the Serbian President Milosevic hopes to be able to negotiate and bargain its way to Western recognition of the emergence of a new Serb dominated Yugoslavia and a new Croatia, including the partition of Bosnia between them. Berlin and Moscow have been deterred thus far from endorsing explicitly co-existence between Serbs and Croats, which seems to be their preferred solution.

I like to close on a somewhat personal note. Neither President Clinton nor Candidate Dole said a word about General Draza Mihailovic on the 50th Anniversary of his execution by communist dictator Tito in July of 1946. My grand-uncle ably defended General Mihailovic. As a result he was tortured and died in Tito's jail. The Joksimovich family was persecuted by the communists. Time magazine in its May 25, 1942 issue ran a front-page photograph titled: "Mihailovich: Yugoslavia's Unconquered". Not only that General Mihailovic was the first one to rise against Hitler in Nazi occupied Europe, but he saved the lives of over 500 American aviators. I know how grateful they are to him and how disgusted they are with demonization od the Serbs. To their and my profound disappointment, President Clinton has sent NATO troops to capture former Bosnian Serb President Dr. Karadzic and General Mladic! It is a tragic mistake.